2026 Severe Weather Outlook – Tracking Weather – SPC Updates

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2026 Severe Weather Tracking Outlooks And More

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SOUTHERN REGION NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center Convective Outlooks SPC Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook SPC Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook SPC Day 2 Severe Weather Outlook SPC Day 2 Severe Weather Outlook SPC Day 3 Severe Weather Outlook SPC Day 3 Severe Weather Outlook SPC Day 1 Tornado Outlook SPC Day 1 Tornado Outlook SPC Day 2 Tornado Outlook SPC Day 2 Tornado Outlook SPC Day 1 Severe Wind Outlook SPC Day 1 Severe Wind Outlook SPC Day 2 Severe Wind Outlook SPC Day 2 Severe Wind Outlook SPC Day 1 Severe Hail Outlook SPC Day 1 Severe Hail Outlook SPC Day 2 Severe Hail Outlook SPC Day 2 Severe Hail Outlook
WESTERN REGION NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center Convective Outlooks SPC Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook SPC Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook SPC Day 2 Severe Weather Outlook SPC Day 2 Severe Weather Outlook SPC Day 3 Severe Weather Outlook SPC Day 3 Severe Weather Outlook SPC Day 1 Tornado Outlook SPC Day 1 Tornado Outlook SPC Day 2 Tornado Outlook SPC Day 2 Tornado Outlook SPC Day 1 Severe Wind Outlook SPC Day 1 Severe Wind Outlook SPC Day 2 Severe Wind Outlook SPC Day 2 Severe Wind Outlook SPC Day 1 Severe Hail Outlook SPC Day 1 Severe Hail Outlook SPC Day 2 Severe Hail Outlook SPC Day 2 Severe Hail Outlook
EASTERN REGION NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center Convective Outlooks SPC Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook SPC Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook SPC Day 2 Severe Weather Outlook SPC Day 2 Severe Weather Outlook SPC Day 3 Severe Weather Outlook SPC Day 3 Severe Weather Outlook SPC Day 1 Tornado Outlook SPC Day 1 Tornado Outlook SPC Day 2 Tornado Outlook SPC Day 2 Tornado Outlook SPC Day 1 Severe Wind Outlook SPC Day 1 Severe Wind Outlook SPC Day 2 Severe Wind Outlook SPC Day 2 Severe Wind Outlook SPC Day 1 Severe Hail Outlook SPC Day 1 Severe Hail Outlook SPC Day 2 Severe Hail Outlook SPC Day 2 Severe Hail Outlook
CENTRAL REGION NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center Convective Outlooks SPC Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook SPC Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook SPC Day 2 Severe Weather Outlook SPC Day 2 Severe Weather Outlook SPC Day 3 Severe Weather Outlook SPC Day 3 Severe Weather Outlook SPC Day 1 Tornado Outlook SPC Day 1 Tornado Outlook SPC Day 2 Tornado Outlook SPC Day 2 Tornado Outlook SPC Day 1 Severe Wind Outlook SPC Day 1 Severe Wind Outlook SPC Day 2 Severe Wind Outlook SPC Day 2 Severe Wind Outlook SPC Day 1 Severe Hail Outlook SPC Day 1 Severe Hail Outlook SPC Day 2 Severe Hail Outlook SPC Day 2 Severe Hail Outlook

Severe Weather Season 101

What “Severe Weather” Actually Means

Meteorologists define severe thunderstorms using specific criteria used by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the Storm Prediction Center.

A thunderstorm is severe if it produces at least one of these:
• Hail 1 inch diameter or larger (quarter size)
• Wind gusts 58 mph or stronger
• A tornado

Other dangerous effects can include:
⚡ frequent lightning
🌧 flash flooding
🌪 rotating storms capable of tornadoes

Severe weather follows warm air moving northward in spring. Typical U.S. timeline....
January–February Gulf Coast severe storms Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama
March–April Deep South becomes very active
April–May Peak tornado season for the Southeast
May–June Peak tornado season for the Plains
June–July Northern Plains and Midwest
Late summer Severe storms shift north into the Dakotas and Upper Midwest

Why the U.S. Gets So Much Severe Weather?? The U.S. is basically perfectly designed for violent storms because three air masses collide...
Warm moist air Comes from the Gulf of Mexico Cold dry air Comes from Canada Hot dry air Comes from the Southwest deserts When these collide with strong winds aloft, storms can rotate and intensify. 4. The Key Ingredients for Severe Storms Meteorologists look for four main ingredients: 1️⃣ Moisture Warm humid air fuels storms. Typical source: Gulf of Mexico moisture 2️⃣ Instability Warm air near the surface and colder air above. This creates rising air. Higher instability = stronger storms. 3️⃣ Lift Something must trigger storms. Examples: Cold fronts Warm fronts Drylines Outflow boundaries 4️⃣ Wind Shear Wind changing direction or speed with height. Wind shear is what allows storms to rotate. 5. Supercells (The Most Dangerous Storms) The most powerful severe storms are called supercells. Characteristics: 🌪 rotating updraft (mesocyclone) 🌧 very large hail 💨 destructive winds 🌪 strong tornado potential Supercells can last hours, unlike normal storms. 6. Tornado Alley vs Dixie Alley Tornado Alley Classic U.S. tornado region. States include: Texas Oklahoma Kansas Nebraska Why it's active: Dryline collisions Huge instability Strong jet stream winds Dixie Alley Southeast tornado hotspot. States include: Mississippi Alabama Tennessee Louisiana Why it's dangerous: ⚠ storms often occur at night ⚠ more trees and hills ⚠ more populated areas 7. Types of Severe Thunderstorms Single Cell Short-lived storms (30–45 minutes). Usually produce: heavy rain lightning Multicell Clusters Groups of storms. Common hazards: strong winds hail Squall Lines Long lines of storms along a cold front. Often produce: 💨 damaging straight-line winds 🌧 heavy rain ⚡ frequent lightning Sometimes they form derechos (long-lived windstorms). Supercells The most dangerous storm type. Produce: giant hail violent tornadoes destructive winds 8. The Role of the Jet Stream The jet stream acts like a steering wheel for storms. Strong jet stream = stronger severe weather setups. It also provides: wind shear storm organization large storm systems 9. Climate Patterns That Influence Severe Weather El Niño Often shifts severe weather southward. More storms: Gulf Coast Southeast La Niña Often increases severe weather in: Plains Midwest 10. How Meteorologists Predict Severe Weather Forecasting happens in layers of increasing confidence. Days in advance Meteorologists watch: moisture return jet stream patterns cold fronts 3–5 days out The Storm Prediction Center issues outlooks. Risk levels: 🟩 Marginal 🟨 Slight 🟧 Enhanced 🟥 Moderate 🟪 High Day of event Storm Prediction Center issues: ⚠ Severe Thunderstorm Watches 🌪 Tornado Watches Storm happening Local National Weather Service offices issue: 🚨 Warnings These mean: Severe weather is occurring or imminent. 11. Radar Signatures Storm Trackers Watch Storm trackers and meteorologists watch radar for: Hook echo Classic tornado signature Debris ball Tornado lofting debris Bow echo Damaging wind events Velocity couplets Strong rotation 12. Severe Weather Safety Basics When a tornado warning is issued: Go to: lowest floor interior room away from windows Best places: ✔ basement ✔ bathroom ✔ closet Avoid: ❌ mobile homes ❌ vehicles ❌ large open rooms 13. Why Spring Is the Peak Season Spring has the perfect combination of: 🔥 increasing warmth ❄ leftover cold air 💨 strong jet stream This combination creates volatile atmospheric setups. Bonus: Why Storm Chasers Love May May often has: massive instability strong jet stream classic drylines This creates the most photogenic tornadoes. ✅ Quick Summary Severe weather needs: 1️⃣ Moisture 2️⃣ Instability 3️⃣ Lift 4️⃣ Wind shear When all four combine, you can get: 🌩 supercells 🌪 tornadoes 🧊 giant hail 💨 destructive winds

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