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2026 Severe Weather Outlook – Tracking Weather – SPC Updates

2025 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

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2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Atlantic 2 Day GTWO graphic
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
  • Mon, 21 Sep 2026 04:21:01 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
    656
    AXNT20 KNHC 210419
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    0615 UTC Mon Sep 21 2026

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    0400 UTC.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 29W, south of
    16N, moving eastward at around 10 to 15 kt. No significant
    convection is noted with this wave.

    A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 46W, south of
    20N, drifting slowly westward. No significant convection is noted
    with this wave.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 19N16W to
    10N20W to 06N35W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N
    to 15N and east of 20W, and from 08N to 10N between 47W and 52W.

    ...GULF OF AMERICA...

    A weak pressure gradient prevails across the area generating
    light to gentle winds and slight seas across the Gulf. An upper
    low centered over west-central Florida is supporting clusters of
    showers and thunderstorms off Panama City, Florida, off Tampa Bay,
    Florida, and over the Florida Straits.

    For the forecast, weak surface ridging across the southeastern
    U.S. will maintain generally gentle to moderate winds across the
    basin through mid week. A vigorous upper-level low and associated
    surface low or trough over the central Gulf will contribute to
    scattered showers and thunderstorms over the eastern Gulf through
    the midweek, with the Straits of Florida the most active area. A
    cold front may sink into the northern Gulf Thu night through Fri,
    leading to a modest increase in winds across the basin.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA...

    A relatively weak pressure pattern is across the basin. Moderate
    to fresh winds and moderate seas prevail east of 80W. Light to
    gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail west of 80W.
    An upper trough reaches from the eastern Gulf into the northwest
    Caribbean. Divergent flow aloft on the southeast side of the upper
    trough is supporting clusters of showers and thunderstorms off,
    Nicaragua, southwest of Jamaica, and off eastern Cuba and the
    Windward Passage.

    For the forecast, a modest pressure gradient between weak high
    pressure currently near Bermuda and the Colombian Low will
    maintain moderate to fresh trade winds over the south-central
    Caribbean throughout the upcoming work week. A vigorous upper-
    level low over the Gulf of America will promote scattered to
    numerous showers and thunderstorms over the west and
    northwestern Caribbean through midweek.


    ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    For awareness purposes, Tropical Storm Fay is centered northeast
    of the discussion area near 34.1N 31.9W at 21/0300 UTC or 335 nm
    southwest of the Azores, moving ESE at 4 kt. Estimated minimum
    central pressure is 995 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt
    with gusts to 75 kt.

    An upper trough reaches from the eastern Gulf into the northwest
    Caribbean. Divergent flow aloft on the southeast side of the upper
    trough is supporting clusters of showers and thunderstorms from
    the Florida Straits, off northern Cuba, across the central and
    southern Bahamas, and between the central Bahamas and Bermuda. A
    weak pressure gradient prevails across the discussion waters.
    Light to gentle winds prevail across the waters west of 45W,
    except reaching moderate speeds near the central and southern
    Bahamas. Slight to moderate seas prevail over these waters. E of
    45W, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail.

    For the forecast west of 55W, a very weak pressure gradient across the western
    Atlantic will promote variable gentle to moderate winds across
    forecast waters through early Thu. A vigorous upper-level low
    over the Gulf of America and Florida, and abundant tropical
    moisture across the Atlantic will force scattered showers and
    thunderstorms across the waters west of 70W through Wed. Low
    pressure will deepen offshore of the middle Atlantic coast of
    the U.S. late Wed through Fri, allowing a cold front to move
    into the far NW waters and N Florida Thu through Fri. The front
    will be accompanied by increasing winds and the potential for
    large N-NE swell.

    Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Fay is near 34.1N 31.9W at 11 PM EDT, and is
    moving east-southeast at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 60 kt
    with gusts to 75 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 995 mb.
    Fay will move to 33.7N 31.8W Mon morning, 32.7N 32.5W Mon evening,
    31.6N 33.9W Tue morning, 30.8N 35.7W Tue evening, then weaken to
    a remnant low near 30.1N 37.6W Wed morning, and move to 29.6N
    39.3W Wed evening. Fay will change little in intensity as it moves
    to 29.6N 42.2W late Thu.

    $$

    Christensen
Tropical Weather Discussion
  • Mon, 21 Sep 2026 04:21:01 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
    656
    AXNT20 KNHC 210419
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    0615 UTC Mon Sep 21 2026

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    0400 UTC.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 29W, south of
    16N, moving eastward at around 10 to 15 kt. No significant
    convection is noted with this wave.

    A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 46W, south of
    20N, drifting slowly westward. No significant convection is noted
    with this wave.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 19N16W to
    10N20W to 06N35W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N
    to 15N and east of 20W, and from 08N to 10N between 47W and 52W.

    ...GULF OF AMERICA...

    A weak pressure gradient prevails across the area generating
    light to gentle winds and slight seas across the Gulf. An upper
    low centered over west-central Florida is supporting clusters of
    showers and thunderstorms off Panama City, Florida, off Tampa Bay,
    Florida, and over the Florida Straits.

    For the forecast, weak surface ridging across the southeastern
    U.S. will maintain generally gentle to moderate winds across the
    basin through mid week. A vigorous upper-level low and associated
    surface low or trough over the central Gulf will contribute to
    scattered showers and thunderstorms over the eastern Gulf through
    the midweek, with the Straits of Florida the most active area. A
    cold front may sink into the northern Gulf Thu night through Fri,
    leading to a modest increase in winds across the basin.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA...

    A relatively weak pressure pattern is across the basin. Moderate
    to fresh winds and moderate seas prevail east of 80W. Light to
    gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail west of 80W.
    An upper trough reaches from the eastern Gulf into the northwest
    Caribbean. Divergent flow aloft on the southeast side of the upper
    trough is supporting clusters of showers and thunderstorms off,
    Nicaragua, southwest of Jamaica, and off eastern Cuba and the
    Windward Passage.

    For the forecast, a modest pressure gradient between weak high
    pressure currently near Bermuda and the Colombian Low will
    maintain moderate to fresh trade winds over the south-central
    Caribbean throughout the upcoming work week. A vigorous upper-
    level low over the Gulf of America will promote scattered to
    numerous showers and thunderstorms over the west and
    northwestern Caribbean through midweek.


    ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    For awareness purposes, Tropical Storm Fay is centered northeast
    of the discussion area near 34.1N 31.9W at 21/0300 UTC or 335 nm
    southwest of the Azores, moving ESE at 4 kt. Estimated minimum
    central pressure is 995 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt
    with gusts to 75 kt.

    An upper trough reaches from the eastern Gulf into the northwest
    Caribbean. Divergent flow aloft on the southeast side of the upper
    trough is supporting clusters of showers and thunderstorms from
    the Florida Straits, off northern Cuba, across the central and
    southern Bahamas, and between the central Bahamas and Bermuda. A
    weak pressure gradient prevails across the discussion waters.
    Light to gentle winds prevail across the waters west of 45W,
    except reaching moderate speeds near the central and southern
    Bahamas. Slight to moderate seas prevail over these waters. E of
    45W, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail.

    For the forecast west of 55W, a very weak pressure gradient across the western
    Atlantic will promote variable gentle to moderate winds across
    forecast waters through early Thu. A vigorous upper-level low
    over the Gulf of America and Florida, and abundant tropical
    moisture across the Atlantic will force scattered showers and
    thunderstorms across the waters west of 70W through Wed. Low
    pressure will deepen offshore of the middle Atlantic coast of
    the U.S. late Wed through Fri, allowing a cold front to move
    into the far NW waters and N Florida Thu through Fri. The front
    will be accompanied by increasing winds and the potential for
    large N-NE swell.

    Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Fay is near 34.1N 31.9W at 11 PM EDT, and is
    moving east-southeast at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 60 kt
    with gusts to 75 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 995 mb.
    Fay will move to 33.7N 31.8W Mon morning, 32.7N 32.5W Mon evening,
    31.6N 33.9W Tue morning, 30.8N 35.7W Tue evening, then weaken to
    a remnant low near 30.1N 37.6W Wed morning, and move to 29.6N
    39.3W Wed evening. Fay will change little in intensity as it moves
    to 29.6N 42.2W late Thu.

    $$

    Christensen
Active Tropical Systems
  • Mon, 21 Sep 2026 08:37:17 +0000: Tropical Storm Fay Forecast Discussion Number 8 - NHC Atlantic
    Issued at 900 AM GMT Mon Sep 21 2026
    000
    WTNT41 KNHC 210836
    TCDAT1
     
    Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number   8
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062026
    900 AM GMT Mon Sep 21 2026
     
    Fay is now feeling the effects of strong vertical wind shear.
    Satellite imagery indicates that the circulation has become
    significantly vertical tilted, with the low-level center now well
    north-northwest of the mid-level center. The initial intensity is
    nudged down to 55 kt, which lies at the high end of the latest
    satellite intensity estimates.
     
    Continued strong northerly vertical wind shear, along with 
    intrusions of dry air should cause Fay to steadily weaken over the 
    next few days. In fact, simulated satellite images from the GFS and 
    ECMWF models show deep convection completely dissipating within the 
    next 24 hours due to the harsh atmospheric conditions. Based on the 
    latest guidance and satellite trends, the new forecast calls for a 
    faster rate of weakening, with the transition to a remnant low now 
    expected by 48 hours and dissipation in 4-5 days. This forecast lies 
    near the middle of the guidance envelope.
     
    Fay appears to have turned southward at a slow pace, as expected, as 
    the mid- to upper-level trough over the north Atlantic lifts out. A 
    faster southwestward motion is forecast over the next few days as a 
    low- to mid-level ridge becomes established to the northeast of the 
    cyclone. This pattern should keep the system over the open Atlantic 
    through dissipation later in the week. Little change was made to the 
    previous track forecast, and this prediction is in best agreement 
    with the Google DeepMind ensemble mean and HCCA.
     
     
    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
     
    INIT  21/0900Z 33.8N  32.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
     12H  21/1800Z 33.2N  32.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
     24H  22/0600Z 32.3N  33.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
     36H  22/1800Z 31.2N  34.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
     48H  23/0600Z 30.4N  36.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
     60H  23/1800Z 29.8N  38.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
     72H  24/0600Z 29.6N  40.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
     96H  25/0600Z 29.5N  43.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    120H  26/0600Z...DISSIPATED
     
    $$
    Forecaster Cangialosi
  • Mon, 21 Sep 2026 08:37:10 +0000: Tropical Storm Fay Graphics - NHC Atlantic


    Tropical Storm Fay 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 21 Sep 2026 03:22:47 GMT
  • Mon, 21 Sep 2026 08:36:37 +0000: Tropical Storm Fay Forecast Advisory Number 8 - NHC Atlantic
    Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 21 2026
    000
    WTNT21 KNHC 210836
    TCMAT1
     
    TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   8
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062026
    0900 UTC MON SEP 21 2026
     
    TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.8N  32.1W AT 21/0900Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
     
    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OR 155 DEGREES AT   2 KT
     
    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  997 MB
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
    50 KT....... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
    34 KT....... 60NE  70SE  40SW  50NW.
    4 M SEAS.... 60NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
     
    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.8N  32.1W AT 21/0900Z
    AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.0N  32.0W
     
    FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 33.2N  32.3W
    MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
    34 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.
     
    FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 32.3N  33.2W
    MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
    34 KT... 50NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.
     
    FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 31.2N  34.9W
    MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
    34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
     
    FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 30.4N  36.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
     
    FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 29.8N  38.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
     
    FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 29.6N  40.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
     
    EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
    ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
     
    OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 29.5N  43.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
     
    OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED
     
    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.8N  32.1W
     
    NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z
     
    $$
    FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
  • Mon, 21 Sep 2026 08:36:36 +0000: Tropical Storm Fay Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8 - NHC Atlantic
    Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 21 2026
    000
    FONT11 KNHC 210836
    PWSAT1
                                                                        
    TROPICAL STORM FAY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   8              
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062026               
    0900 UTC MON SEP 21 2026                                            
                                                                        
    AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 
    33.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
    55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.                                         
                                                                        
    Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
       ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
       EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
       CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                        
    WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                        
    CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
       ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
       ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
       ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
    FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                        
    PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
        OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
            AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
       (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
            06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                        
    PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
    X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
    PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
    THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
    PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
    64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                        
                                                                        
      - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                        
                   FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
      TIME       06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
    PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
                 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
                                                                        
    FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
    LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                        
    $$                                                                  
    FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
  • Mon, 21 Sep 2026 08:36:34 +0000: Tropical Storm Fay Public Advisory Number 8 - NHC Atlantic
    Issued at 900 AM GMT Mon Sep 21 2026
    000
    WTNT31 KNHC 210836
    TCPAT1
     
    BULLETIN
    Tropical Storm Fay Advisory Number   8
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062026
    900 AM GMT Mon Sep 21 2026
     
    ...FAY BEGINS TO WEAKEN...
     
     
    SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...33.8N 32.1W
    ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM SW OF THE AZORES
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSE OR 155 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
     
     
    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
     
     
    DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
    ----------------------
    At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fay was
    located near latitude 33.8 North, longitude 32.1 West. Fay is moving
    very slowly toward the south-southeast near 2 mph (4 km/h). A 
    faster motion to the southwest is anticipated during the next few 
    days.
     
    Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) 
    with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Fay could 
    degenerate to a post-tropical cyclone in a day or two.
     
    Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
    from the center.
     
    The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).
     
     
    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    None.
     
     
    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT.
     
    $$
    Forecaster Cangialosi
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
  • Sun, 20 Sep 2026 15:43:24 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
    000
    NOUS42 KNHC 201543
    REPRPD
    WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
    CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
    1145 AM EDT SUN 20 SEPTEMBER 2026
    SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
    VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2026
    TCPOD NUMBER.....26-112

    I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

    II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. SUSPECT AREA EP99
    FLIGHT ONE - NOAA 42
    A. 21/1600Z
    B. NOAA2 01AAE TDR
    C. 21/1300Z
    D. 15.0N 103.0W
    E. 21/1500Z TO 21/1800Z
    F. SFC TO 15,000 FT
    G. TAIL DOPPLER RADAR
    H. NO WRA ACTIVATION

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: BEGIN 12-HOURLY FIXES ON EP99 AT
    22/1800Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND IS A THREAT.

    $$
    KAL

    NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
  • Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion

    000
    AGXX40 KNHC 171522
    MIMATS

    Marine Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021

    Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
    and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
    and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

    This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
    Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
    Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.

    ...GULF OF MEXICO...

    High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
    the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
    week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
    basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
    Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
    Plains.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
    55W AND 64W...

    A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
    diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
    will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
    pressure builds across the western Atlantic.

    ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

    A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
    will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
    drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
    pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
    an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
    with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.

    $$

    .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
    coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
    telephone:

    .GULF OF MEXICO...
    None.

    .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
    55W AND 64W...
    None.

    .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
    None.

    $$

    *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

    Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
    Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

    For additional information, please visit:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

    $$

    .Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
  • Thu, 01 May 2025 13:04:51 +0000: Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary - Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
    000<br />ABNT30 KNHC 011304<br />TWSAT <br /><br />Monthly Tropical Weather Summary<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />900 AM EDT Thu May 1 2025<br /><br />This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Weather <br />Summary (TWS) text product that will be issued for the Atlantic <br />basin. The tropical cyclone statistics from the TWS will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov beginning with the 2025 hurricane season. This <br />change will allow for more frequent updates to the statistics and <br />the addition of graphics and links to supporting information that <br />this text only format cannot support. An account of tropical <br />cyclone names, classification (i.e., tropical depression, tropical <br />storm, or hurricane), and maximum sustained wind speed will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov at this url beginning around July 1: <br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?basin=atl<br /><br />A sample webpage is provided here, with the "2023 Atlantic Summary <br />Table (PDF)" example linked below the Tropical Cyclone Reports <br />(TCRs):<br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl <br /><br />This information will be updated no less frequently than monthly <br />during the hurricane season and will be updated after the season's <br />TCRs are completed to document the official record of the season's <br />tropical cyclone activity. Previously, the statistics and data in <br />the TWS were based on real-time operational assessments and were <br />not updated when the season's TCRs were complete. The new <br />web-based format allows the information to be updated once the <br />post-analysis for the season is complete. <br /><br />For more information, see Service Change Notice 25-22: Migration of <br />the Tropical Weather Summary Information from Text Product Format to <br />hurricanes.gov:<br /><br />https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-<br />22_moving_info_from_tws_to_hurricanes.gov.pdf
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