Tracking Delta – 2020 Hurricane Season
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- Mon, 21 Sep 2026 08:36:34 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Storm Fay Advisory Number 8 - Atlantic Tropical Storm Fay Advisory Number 8
000
WTNT31 KNHC 210836
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fay Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026
900 AM GMT Mon Sep 21 2026
...FAY BEGINS TO WEAKEN...
SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.8N 32.1W
ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSE OR 155 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fay was
located near latitude 33.8 North, longitude 32.1 West. Fay is moving
very slowly toward the south-southeast near 2 mph (4 km/h). A
faster motion to the southwest is anticipated during the next few
days.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Fay could
degenerate to a post-tropical cyclone in a day or two.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT.
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
- Mon, 21 Sep 2026 08:36:37 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Storm Fay Forecast/Advisory Numb... - Atlantic Tropical Storm Fay Forecast/Advisory Number 8
000
WTNT21 KNHC 210836
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026
0900 UTC MON SEP 21 2026
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.8N 32.1W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OR 155 DEGREES AT 2 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.8N 32.1W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 32.0W
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 33.2N 32.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 32.3N 33.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 31.2N 34.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 30.4N 36.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 29.8N 38.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 29.6N 40.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 29.5N 43.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.8N 32.1W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
- Mon, 21 Sep 2026 08:37:17 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 8 - Atlantic Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 8
000
WTNT41 KNHC 210836
TCDAT1
Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026
900 AM GMT Mon Sep 21 2026
Fay is now feeling the effects of strong vertical wind shear.
Satellite imagery indicates that the circulation has become
significantly vertical tilted, with the low-level center now well
north-northwest of the mid-level center. The initial intensity is
nudged down to 55 kt, which lies at the high end of the latest
satellite intensity estimates.
Continued strong northerly vertical wind shear, along with
intrusions of dry air should cause Fay to steadily weaken over the
next few days. In fact, simulated satellite images from the GFS and
ECMWF models show deep convection completely dissipating within the
next 24 hours due to the harsh atmospheric conditions. Based on the
latest guidance and satellite trends, the new forecast calls for a
faster rate of weakening, with the transition to a remnant low now
expected by 48 hours and dissipation in 4-5 days. This forecast lies
near the middle of the guidance envelope.
Fay appears to have turned southward at a slow pace, as expected, as
the mid- to upper-level trough over the north Atlantic lifts out. A
faster southwestward motion is forecast over the next few days as a
low- to mid-level ridge becomes established to the northeast of the
cyclone. This pattern should keep the system over the open Atlantic
through dissipation later in the week. Little change was made to the
previous track forecast, and this prediction is in best agreement
with the Google DeepMind ensemble mean and HCCA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/0900Z 33.8N 32.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 33.2N 32.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 32.3N 33.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 22/1800Z 31.2N 34.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 23/0600Z 30.4N 36.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 23/1800Z 29.8N 38.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 24/0600Z 29.6N 40.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 25/0600Z 29.5N 43.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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