Hurricane Earl – 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season
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- Mon, 21 Sep 2026 20:34:43 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Storm Fay Advisory Number 10 - Atlantic Tropical Storm Fay Advisory Number 10
000
WTNT31 KNHC 212034
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fay Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026
900 PM GMT Mon Sep 21 2026
...FAY GRADUALLY WEAKENING...
SUMMARY OF 900 PM GMT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.1N 32.2W
ABOUT 445 MI...720 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSW OR 210 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM GMT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fay was
located near latitude 33.1 North, longitude 32.2 West. Fay is
moving toward the south-southwest near 3 mph (6 km/h) and a gradual
turn toward the southwest and west is expected during the next few
days
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Fay is
likely to degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low by late
Tuesday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM GMT.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
- Mon, 21 Sep 2026 20:34:10 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Storm Fay Forecast/Advisory Numb... - Atlantic Tropical Storm Fay Forecast/Advisory Number 10
000
WTNT21 KNHC 212034
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026
2100 UTC MON SEP 21 2026
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.1N 32.2W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OR 210 DEGREES AT 3 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.1N 32.2W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 32.1W
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 32.4N 33.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 31.3N 34.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 30.5N 36.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 29.9N 38.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 29.6N 40.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 29.5N 41.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 29.6N 44.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.1N 32.2W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
- Mon, 21 Sep 2026 20:36:13 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 10 - Atlantic Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 10
000
WTNT41 KNHC 212036
TCDAT1
Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026
900 PM GMT Mon Sep 21 2026
Strong west-northwesterly vertical wind shear has been affecting
Fay today, with most or all deep convection being displaced well
east of the well-defined low-level center. Scatterometer data
suggest that the peak winds have diminished to near 40 kt, which
will be the advisory intensity estimate.
Global model forecasts show that a strong upper-level trough will
shift eastward away from Fay during the next day or so. This will
likely lessen the wind shear over the system by late tomorrow.
However, the Decay-SHIPS guidance indicates that the cyclone should
be ingesting drier air during the next few days. This is consistent
with simulated satellite imagery from the ECMWF global model, which
shows the system losing most of its associated deep convection
during the next 48 hours or so. Therefore the NHC forecast shows
Fay becoming a post-tropical remnant low by tomorrow night, and this
event could occur even sooner than that.
Fay is moving slowly south-southwestward along the eastern side of
a mid-level high. The cyclone is expected to turn southwestward
and then westward around the southern portion of the high until
dissipation. The official track forecast is similar to the
previous few NHC forecasts. This is also in good agreement with
the latest GFS prediction.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/2100Z 33.1N 32.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 32.4N 33.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 31.3N 34.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 23/0600Z 30.5N 36.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 23/1800Z 29.9N 38.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 24/0600Z 29.6N 40.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 24/1800Z 29.5N 41.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 25/1800Z 29.6N 44.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Pasch
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