Tracking Ophelia – 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season
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- Mon, 21 Sep 2026 14:51:53 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Storm Fay Advisory Number 9 - Atlantic Tropical Storm Fay Advisory Number 9
598
WTNT31 KNHC 211451
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fay Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026
300 PM GMT Mon Sep 21 2026
...FAY MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD...
SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.3N 32.0W
ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 180 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fay was
located near latitude 33.3 North, longitude 32.0 West. Fay is
moving toward the south near 5 mph (7 km/h). A gradual turn toward
the southwest and west-southwest is expected over the next few days.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Fay could
degenerate to a post-tropical remnant low in a couple of days.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM GMT.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
- Mon, 21 Sep 2026 14:51:53 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Storm Fay Forecast/Advisory Numb... - Atlantic Tropical Storm Fay Forecast/Advisory Number 9
600
WTNT21 KNHC 211451
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026
1500 UTC MON SEP 21 2026
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 32.0W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 180 DEGREES AT 4 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 32.0W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.5N 31.9W
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 32.6N 32.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 31.6N 33.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 30.7N 35.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 30.0N 37.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 29.4N 39.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 29.3N 40.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 29.3N 43.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.3N 32.0W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
- Mon, 21 Sep 2026 14:52:09 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 9 - Atlantic Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 9
000
WTNT41 KNHC 211452
TCDAT1
Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026
300 PM GMT Mon Sep 21 2026
Fay continues to be affected by strong west-northwesterly vertical
wind shear. Practically all of the deep convection is confined to
a band of showers and thunderstorms located well to the
east of the well-defined low-level center. Using a blend of
subjective and objective intensity estimates, the advisory
intensity is reduced to 45 kt.
Global model simulations show a strong upper-level trough shifting
eastward from Fay during the next day or two. This evolution would
allow for some relaxation of the shear, and this is also indicated
by the Decay SHIPS model. However, the model guidance also
indicates that the system is likely to encounter a drier low- to
mid-level air mass, which should inhibit re-strengthening.
Simulated satellite imagery from the ECMWF output shows Fay's deep
convection mostly dissipated during the next few days. Therefore
the official forecast, like the previous one, shows the cyclone
degenerating into a remnant low by 48 hours.
Fay is now moving southward at around 4 kt, along the eastern side
of a mid-level high. Over the next several days, the cyclone
is expected turn southwestward to west-southwestward and move
around the southeastern and southern periphery of the high. This
should keep the system over the open Atlantic through dissipation
later in the week. Not much change has been made to the previous
NHC track forecast, which remains in good agreement with the Google
DeepMind ensemble mean and corrected model consensus, HCCA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/1500Z 33.3N 32.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 32.6N 32.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 31.6N 33.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 30.7N 35.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 23/1200Z 30.0N 37.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 24/0000Z 29.4N 39.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 24/1200Z 29.3N 40.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 25/1200Z 29.3N 43.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Pasch
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